Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest exporter of readymade garment (RMG) products, is set to remain the largest global importer of raw cotton in the marketing year (MY) 2025-26, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA’s latest report, Cotton: World Markets and Trade, released on 12 August, projected Bangladesh’s cotton imports at 8.1 million bales for MY26, which begins in August. This represents a slight decline from the 8.4 million bales forecast in July.

In MY25, Bangladesh was expected to import 8.1 million bales, up from approximately 7.5 million bales in MY24. The USDA lowered the country’s consumption forecast by 300,000 bales due to reduced demand expectations.

Vietnam, a close competitor in RMG exports, is projected to import 8 million bales in MY26, while China’s imports are expected to fall to 5.3 million bales from 15 million in MY24.

Despite this, Bangladesh has consistently led global cotton imports, bringing in 7 million bales in MY23 and 8.45 million bales in MY22.

Bangladesh’s RMG sector remains a key driver of cotton demand. Export Promotion Bureau data show that RMG exports rose 8.84 per cent year-on-year to $39.35 billion in FY25.

In terms of sourcing, West African cotton held the largest market share in Bangladesh in MY24 at 37 per cent, followed by India (23 per cent), Brazil (17 per cent), and the United States (9 per cent).

However, US exports to Bangladesh are expected to rise as part of efforts to reduce the bilateral trade deficit.

Bangladesh and the US have negotiated reciprocal tariff reductions. A 37 per cent tariff imposed by the US in April was reduced to 35 per cent on July 8 and further to 20 per cent on July 31.

Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) held an emergency Board of Directors meeting on August 6 to review US visit outcomes and plan next steps.

BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell said the association plans to import $1 billion worth of cotton from the US to help address the trade imbalance.

In 2023, Bangladesh lifted the double fumigation requirement for US cotton, allowing direct entry at ports and saving importers millions of dollars and five days of waiting time.

Globally, cotton production is expected to fall by 1.8 million bales to 116.6 million in MY26. Declines are projected in minor crops in the US, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali, while China’s output may rise 500,000 bales to 31.5 million due to higher yields.

In contrast, US production is expected to drop 1.4 million bales to 13.2 million due to reduced harvested area.

Domestic production in Bangladesh remains minimal, with around 153,000 bales produced on 45,000 hectares, representing less than 2 per cent of national consumption.